Is public opinion Left, Right, or libertarian?
Measuring the political spectrum one issue at a time
I track public opinion on various issues and label each result according to the part of the political spectrum it best matches. Each time there is a new poll I will update and republish this article. Please feel free to bring my attention to any new polls you do not see listed here.
Monday, June 27, 2022
THE ISSUE: Abortion and the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll:
55% mostly support abortion rights
56% oppose the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe V. Wade
56% are concerned that the Court will now reconsider the rights to contraception, same-sex marriage, or same-sex relationships
51% say they would vote for a candidate who would support a law to restore a federally protected right to get an abortion
Democrats (88%) are more than four times as likely as Republicans (20%) to oppose the decision.
61% say abortion should be legal in most or all circumstances in the first trimester
65% said abortion should usually be illegal in the second trimester
80% said abortion should be illegal in the third trimester
From the same poll, if you want nuance here's some nuance for you...
23% say abortion should be legal in all cases
33% say it should be legal in most cases.
30% say abortion should be illegal in most cases
13% say it should be illegal in all cases
More nuance here, and even confusion...
71% say decisions about terminating a pregnancy should be left to a woman and her doctor, rather than regulated by the government.
26% say abortion should be legal in all cases
10% said it should be illegal in all cases
More than half think that abortion should be legal in some cases but not in others
As you can see, that last bullet point conflicts with the first bullet point.
33% want abortion to be legal in all cases
32% want it to be legal in most cases
23% want it to be illegal in most cases
12% want it to be illegal in all cases
Again there is nuance...
85% think abortion should be permitted when a woman's health is in danger
81% think it should be legal in case of rape or incest
77% think it should be legal if there is a strong chance the fetus won't survive
70% think it should be legal if the fetus will be disabled
55% think it should be legal if a woman wants one
Please notice that this last point contradicts the finding that only 33% think abortion should be legal in all cases. People's minds seem to slip in and out of gear when answering poll questions. But there's still more nuance...
12% think abortion should be illegal in all cases
23% think it should be legal within the first month
33% think is should be legal within the first trimester
15% think it should be legal within the second trimester
17% think it should be legal at any point
Please notice that the last bullet point contradicts the 55% who claimed it should be legal simply if a woman wants it, and the 33% who think it should be legal in all cases (which are really just two different wordings for the same thing). The human mind is consistently inconsistent. And yet there are clear trends to be seen in all these polls.
So how do we label this conglomeration of opinions?
Americans mostly support a woman's right to abortion. Most Americans also support some limitations to that right. These positions best align with leftist and libertarian thinking on this issue.
People of the Right seem to mostly oppose allowing such a choice, favoring the life of the fetus over a woman's control of her body, but again, with LOTS of exceptions.
Do the hardcore opponents of abortion think that women who get abortions and the doctors who perform such operations, should both be imprisoned? We don't know because these questions don't get asked.
In reality, there's a lot of posturing and virtue signaling on this subject simply because people's stances are so vague and ill-defined. You can bet that these polls would turn out differently if people were asked how women and doctors should be punished for violating abortion laws. It's always easier to be for or against something when you don't have to think about the cost. And there's already a lot of nuance to all of this even without considering what the actual punishments would be.
No poll shows a majority for 100% legal abortion. Instead, there is widespread support for both a general right to abortion and what we might call reasonable fetus control regulation. Though the question of what to do if such regulations are violated remains unanswered and undiscussed in the public debate.
BOTTOMLINE: American opinion seems to be Leftist and/or libertarian on this issue.
It should also be noted that libertarians tend to favor leaving criminal matters to the states, which would favor overturning Roe v. Wade on 10th Amendment grounds, but libertarians are also more likely to favor a federally protected right to abortion if it is decided on 9th Amendment grounds. The reason offered for protecting a right to abortion at the federal level probably matters more to libertarians than it does to people of the Left.
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Hi Perry, Thank you for giving this decision context and analysis. I never thought 6/24/2022 would come in my lifetime, or ever. I am saddened by the opinion of people who justify accepting the decision on constitutional grounds. As if, the 1973 court violated the constitution in a 7-2 decision, and the 2022 court made it whole in a 6-3 decision.
It seems to me that the Zero Aggression principle wouldn't provide complete clarity on this matter. The notion of zero aggression assumes that there is a 'who' that is the object of aggression. The 'when' of the abortion question is partly about the point at which point a fetus becomes a 'who' that should be protected from 'aggression'. What duty of care does a parent owe a child and when does this start? This is what we the people must now deal with. Frankly, I would much prefer for each state to have its own referendum. Each political party is in the hands of those who want 'all' or 'nothing', and neither of position seems to represent the vast majority of voters.