Below, I will use the terms "Iranian regime" or "Islamic Republic" to differentiate the Iranian people from the theocratic tyranny that oppresses them. The Iranian people have tried to end the theocracy multiple times, so they are not responsible for the evil it does.
I made several predictions in a recent article about how Israel would respond to the Islamic Republic's April 13, 2024 attack. Let's see how I fared.
Gaza
Many people claimed Israel's Gaza withdrawal meant they were losing the war. I predicted the withdrawal was only temporary. I argued that Israel would return after they dealt with the Islamic Republic.
I was correct. Israel is now preparing to renew its war against Hamas by invading Rafah.
Humanitarian Aid
I predicted the temporary withdrawal would enable Israel to prepare its retaliation against the Iranian regime while also letting more civilian aid enter Gaza. That prediction was also correct.
Civilian evacuation
I predicted Israel would move civilians north to limit collateral casualties before invading Rafah. I got that one right too. Israel has started the evacuation.
War with the Islamic Republic
I predicted/advised that Israel would not/should not escalate direct conflict with the Iranian regime.
I suggested that Israel might target nuclear facilities if it did retaliate.
Israel split the loaf. They did retaliate, and they did target minor nuclear adjacent assets, but they did NOT escalate. Israel's retaliation was less aggressive than the Islamic Republic's attack had been.
The message Israel sent was, "We can destroy your nuclear facilities, so be careful what you do."
I got this one almost exactly right.
Pending verdicts
I further predicted that...
Israel will divide Gaza's governance between various influential Palestinian families
Israel will encourage greater involvement by the United Arab Emirates in Gaza, as opposed to Qatar or Egypt.
Israel will deal with Hezbollah after it eliminates Hamas
Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia will continue despite the Gaza war
I stand by these estimates so long as Netanyahu's right-wing coalition retains power. Should the coalition fall the new government might be less aggressive against Hezbollah, but I doubt it. Israeli public opinion seems unified toward ending the Islamic Republic's proxy threats.
New predictions
Having scored so well on those predictions I feel emboldened to make more.
Judea and Samaria
I predict Israel will formally annex Judea and Samaria (the so-called West Bank) sometime in the next two to five years.
The timing will depend on how long it takes Israel to eliminate Hezbollah, and whether or not Israel goes to war with the Islamic Republic directly. Said differently...
Israel will annex Judea and Samaria as soon as it finishes with Hezbollah, or after it finishes with the Iranian regime.
There are precedents for this. Israel did it with the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem with good results. I think the same can, should, and will be done with Judea-Samaria.
The response to annexation
I predict the world will howl, the Palestinians will scream, and terrorist attacks will spasm upward, but these will all prove to be unimportant surface reactions.
Beneath that surface, the Palestinian Arabs will scramble to seize the profound benefits that will come from being a formal part of Israeli society.
I predict that many Palestinians will fulminate for a Palestinian state for decades or centuries, just as some Americans still "refight" the Civil War, but they will mainly accommodate and prosper, just as Israeli Arabs have.
The world will likewise protest for a few months or years, but behind the scenes, many leaders will privately sigh with relief that the bleeding status quo has finally been broken.
Palestinian institutions
I predict the Israelis will terminate the Palestinian Authority and arrest any Palestinian leaders who advocate violence.
If the Palestinian nationalists wanted to backfoot the Israelis they might adopt Ghandi-style passive resistance, but I predict that will never happen. It doesn't fit the culture.
Terrorism
Without formal institutions to organize terrorism, I predict that activity will slowly wither away after an initial surge.
Palestinian benefits
The checkpoints that make Arab life in Judea and Samaria so irritating will slowly fall as Palestinian affluence and integration rise.
Settler aggression and vigilanteism will decline when the main settler goal has been achieved, which is the annexation of Judea-Samaria.
I predict that full citizenship for the Palestinian Arabs will take a decade or more, but it will come. In the meantime, due process and civil rights will replace the settler violence, Fatah kleptocracy, and Hamas brutality that has oppressed the Palestinian Arabs.
Demography and democracy
I predict the supposed Arab majority will prove to be fraudulent.
When a proper census is done Jews will have a 60% to 80% majority.
Eventually, ruling coalitions will come to include both Jewish and Arab parties. By the next century, there will be no ethnic parties.
I think all of this could have happened long ago if the KGB had not created the PLO in 1964 and Ronald Reagan had not prevented Israel from destroying the PLO when they had them on the ropes in Lebanon in 1982. In other words...
The duration and intensity of this conflict is mostly a product of Cold War stratagems and blunders. The conflict will prove to have no legs once its institutional underpinnings are cut away.
Peace is coming to the Middle East, whether the Islamic fundamentalists want it or not. But what about...
The Iranian Regime
All politics is local. The Iranian regime does crazy things because its fundamentalist base wants it.
This is why the Supreme Leader announced increased enforcement of the female attire laws at the same time he discussed the attack on Israel. These seemingly unrelated subjects both play to the fundamentalist minority that keeps the Mullahs in power.
Meanwhile, other Iranians were writing graffiti on the walls of Tehran begging Israel to attack the Mullahs directly. Many Iranians were hoping the Israelis would blow up the Supreme Leader's house.
Armin Navabi, an Iranian ex-Muslim and ex-patriot who operates a YouTube Channel called the Atheist Republic (as a counter to the Islamic Republic) argues that the fundamentalists make up only about 8% of the Iranian population. He asserts that the rest of the country hates the theocracy. This upside-down system cannot prevail forever. The Iranian people have made numerous attempts to topple it, and many of them are now begging for Israeli help.
I predict they will get that help.
I predict Israel will eradicate both Hamas and Hezbollah and then strike at Iran. This attack will be massive and devastating.
It will destroy nuclear, military, and Revolutionary Guard facilities, assets, and personalities. It will strike the key Mullahs in the same way that Israel has targeted and eliminated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
I predict the Iranian people will respond to these attacks by rebelling against the regime. Israel will provide the air assault and the people will provide the ground troops.
I predict the Iranian regime will fall.
I predict that the new regime, however good or bad it turns out to be, will make peace with Israel and with its Arab neighbors.
I predict we will one day come to see the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel as the last desperate gasp of Islamic jihad.
Where my predictions can go wrong
All of this involves human beings, so there are trillions of ways my predictions can go wrong. But there's at least one wild card I can specifically identify...
U.S. meddling could thwart the above scenario, just as President Reagan saved the PLO from extinction in 1982.
U.S. leaders usually have good intentions, but it isn't clear to me that their involvement has been good for the Israelis or the Palestinians on a net basis.
Stay tuned for the results. I will publish another prediction scorecard in the near future.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2024
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.